I think it's pretty clear that next year, Portland faces a roster crunch. Adding Greg Oden, a lottery pick, and possibly Rudy Fernandez means there will be some odd men out. While few would shed tears over the departure of Monsieurs Von Wafer, Raef LaFrentz, Darius Miles, or Josh McRoberts, I think there are a few difficult decisions to be made. I am far from alone in thinking that packaging together a few of our players to make a trade may be a prudent (and maybe even likely) move this summer.
Most of us Blazer fans seem to feel that an upgrade at the point guard position is in order. Many are particularly displeased with the play and development of Jarret Jack and would like to see him packaged in a trade. So let's call JJ the foundation for our transaction. As for who else goes with Jarret, I think to get anything of quality in return, we also have to consider adding one of our talented youngsters, either Martell Webster or Travis Outlaw.
I remember a few months ago, I was thinking, "man, Trout is an indispensable part of our future! Too bad Marty can't get on board, it looks like he may never 'get it'." A little time, a little patience, and more distance from The Streak has made me think differently. Travis has a flair for the dramatic, and he has nights where he looks unstoppable. However, I find myself saying "ugly shot" or "that was weird" almost every time Trout releases - and about 45% of the time, after the shot goes in, I'll say "well, I guess that worked!" Martell, on the other hand, takes shots that are more within the flow of the offense, and I always find myself saying "good look" when he lets go of the ball. He doesn't hit as many of them as I would hope, but I like the shots he does take - if anything, I wish he would take a few more.
The other aspect to consider is that Trout offers little else aside from his offense. Marty is becoming an adequate defender and rebounder, and is clearly working on developing a well-rounded offensive game - complementing his outside shot with some back-door cuts, second-chance dunks, and curls off screens. Martell is great at moving without the ball, which is not one of Travis' strengths.
This is all a long-winded way of saying that I am now thinking that Trout is the one to trade. I think his current value in the minds of rival general managers is higher, and I think he is less well-suited for our long-term plans than Martell. I also think that what we have seen from Travis this year may be the best he has to offer. As a fantasy basketball player, I'm always reading about how Trout is a candidate to be a good source of steals and blocks when he "breaks out," and that may reflect what others see in his future because of his athleticism, but I just don't envision his defense improving dramatically from here.
Now, as for point guards. Some have suggested that we try to acquire Baron Davis, and others feel that Jose Calderon would be a great fit for us. Kevin Pritchard was reportedly close to acquiring Devin Harris at the trade deadline. I loves me some Boom-Dizzle, but I don't think Baron Davis is a good fit for the Blazers, for some of the same reasons we've been criticizing Jack (dominates the ball, turns it over a bit more than you would like, poor FG%). I'm also not as high on Devin Harris as some people (I would have been okay with a Trout-for-Harris deal, though). Calderon has been having a terrific season, but I can't help but think he's just a more effective version of Steve Blake; don't we want a fundamentally different kind of PG? If the qualities we seek are:
1) good perimeter defense, 2) decent passer (needn't be playmaker necessarily), 3) decent outside shooter (oughtn't dominate the ball or take more than 10 shots nightly), then I'm not sure we can't get someone like that from the draft. When we think about PGs "developing," and the learning curve that entails, that applies most to a PG who is expected to be the primary creator on offense, and the floor general. If Brandon Roy is doing those things from the off-guard spot, the learning curve needn't be so steep. I'm not convinced that someone with the skills of, say, Russell Westbrook would be difficult to integrate relatively quickly, and he may be available when we draft around #13.
Who does that leave for us to acquire with a Jack/Trout package? I don't know, but someone with the skill set of a Paul Millsap would fit the bill, I think. If we could trick Isaiah Thomas into giving up David Lee, that would be amazing.
Keywords: draft, martell webster, PG, trade, travis outlaw
