The Portland Blazers do not need another young talent, thus getting into the lottery is no priority of ours. Making the playoffs, and hopefully puttin up a little bit of a fight, is for real. The team fell apart last year after that big win streak, when they went 17 of 18 overall only to remember their inexperience- and this year they gotta make the playoffs. no title, just playoffs. in the always tight Western playoff race, how do we get there?
We need to win road games. At the beginning of the season, media spoke of the blazers early success to be significant because of their hard early schedule; tough teams, and road games, the most road games of any team for the first month and a half. Then we stayed second in total road games played for a month after that. Last month, and last week we played enough home games to even out the score. And we did well for ourselves.
23 wins, 5 losses in the Rose Garden thus far. 12 home games remaining.
That's better than Orlando's 22 and 6. We have taken care of home, and were even robbed in a couple of the losses (Dallas Christmas day! not, cool). The blazers have won 82 percent of their home games. Given that is a sustainable amount, we will win nearly 10 of the 12. Let's round down and say 9. That puts us at 44 wins (35 wins as of 02/23)before considering results of remaining away games. Right now, holding down the 8th and final playoff spot is Utah at 33 and 23, 10 wins over .500, winning .589 of their games. Using that win percentage and the possibility of ending 10 over .500, we could project the Jazz to win 48 to 51 wins this season.
Let us not take strongly into consideration the injuries that could send one or two (or three) of the 9 teams in contention for a western playoff spot, spiraling into the shitter. Amare out for the suns (and with a belt holding his eye in place!)! Mclazy, McGrady, out with his usual full body injury package (does anyone remember how cool he was in toronto?). New Orleans also shows sign of slippage, with or without Mr. Chandler (who I dropped off my fantasy team BEFORE the injury. Underachieving, jerk).
Let's pretend none of that is relevant, and assume the blazer core stays healthy. I mean, when Oden gets back, again. To make the playoffs, we will need to win 48 to 51 games. At 12 wins and 15 losses in our loss column, we win 44% of the time on the road. 44% of our 14 road games left is only 6 wins. Take the 35 wins the Blazers have as of 02/23, and the 9 wins I calculated before, (82%, of our 12 remaining home games). and we are at 44, 50 with 6 road game wins. That'd be enough to slide into the 8th or 7th spot, if that magic number is 48 wins. If that magic playoff number is 51, 50 ain't shit. 50 is Golden State last season, missing out on post season fun even with a strong record. And look at Golden State this year!!
Luckily we are not Golden State (though I'd take the mopeding Monte off their hands. Also, Gonzaga grad Turiaf. BEAST). Let's break down the schedule and see where the blazers can defy their percentages. Pull out 51, 52 wins. solidify these playoff aspirations. Get these boys some post season experience.
Next up we have three road games in a row, Houston tuesday, San Antonio and Minnesota. Houston, even with the McGrady injury, and the departure of their tenured starting PG, is on a 4 game win streak. Aaron Brooks is a beast. Driving lanes, stationary dribble moves to quick release three pointers. Ron Artest will surely throw Aldridge around a little more than anyone on the Clippers last night. I'm going to say we'll head into Houston, where they are a mighty 22 and 6 at home, and break their win streak, extending ours. But this will be a hard game. Bayless will be needed to guard Brooks. Steve Blake is fast, just not Aaron Brooks (or Bayless) fast. Of these three away games, we can make it out 2 of 3. San Antonio is tough, even without Ginobili, and we need to beat the wolves even on their turf. Aldridge needs to dominate that night. This mini road trip could go 1 and 2 if things don't roll right. But if Steve Blake keeps moving the offense, we can win all three.
The first half of March keeps the blazers in the Rose Garden. Even if we don't fare well on the mini trip, we need to protect home now. San Antonio on the 1st is no easy win, but we need to take care of Indiana on the 4th. They are quick and play good defense. We have to win that game. Away game in Denver will be very hard to win, especially being the second of a back to back.
Then the Blazers start a four game home stand, with Minnesota on the 7th; this and the Nets on the 12th are must wins. To make the playoffs, you gotta buckle down and win the games your suppose to win. Dallas on the 11th I'm writing down as a win too. Either win or loss in the lakers game two nights before, we should be motivated for a win. Plus, I hate the Mavs.
So as of the 13th of March, the Blazers could potentially be 5 and 2. Or 4 and 3. With road trips 5 and 4 games long soon looming, let's hope for the 5 wins, 2 losses scenario. My guesses, the losses will be Lakers at home, and away in Denver. Meaning we'll beat San Antonio in early March. Of the three game road trip to finish off February, I'll give the Spurs some credit and say they'll beat us there, or you can presumably switch those results.. the upcoming two match ups between spurs/blazers, will be split 50 50. uno, uno. So a 2 and 1 finish to February and a 5 and 2 start to March get's us at 7 wins and 3 losses, 42 wins and 23 losses on the season with 17 games then remaining.
On March 13th if Portland's record is 42 and 23, we'll be in very good shape to hit the postseason. And going 7-3 is not inconceivable. The Blazers have currently won 7 of their last 10.
Starting on the 15th of March we have 5 road games in a row. Fortunately, it is not against the best competition. We should be able to get some wins. To be realistic, to be real, I'll check the Cleveland visit as an L, for Lebron. and loss. But the Hawks, Griz, Pacers, and Bucks, we can get three wins, with either the Hawks or Pacers getting lucky (winning).
So that's 3 and 2 on a long road trip. That would be a solid trip, even with a couple losses. Add it to the 7-3 record I conceived, and 10 and 5 is good. Monday March 23rd is the first of 4 home games. 4, winnable home games. It's big for us to beat Utah, but I hear they're getting Boozer back for 20 minutes a game; barring injury he would surely be back to regular minutes by 03/23. I want to say 3 of 4 in this homestand. But Memphis plays tough. We beat them by 4 points three days ago, also a home game. With Brand out, I say we can beat the 6ers. Portland is showing lately they can run when they need to run. The 76ers and the Griz like to run. So do the Suns, who we play on March 26th.
We'll get three out of 4 on this homestand. 3 wins, 1 loss on the 10 and 5 record is 13 and 6 - 48 and 26 on the year.
Is it unrealistic to think the Blazers will be 20 games over the .500 mark heading into April? It sounds like a bit much. But we want the playoffs. We need to win these home games, and we need to steal some on the road. 5 of the 8 april regular season Blazer games are away. Because I was being so generous with the wins up to this point, especially on those road trips, I'll say the Blazers lose 5 of 8 in April. 3 wins, 5 losses puts us at 51 and 31 to end the season. If Portland wins 51 games they'll make the playoffs. Might have to play the Lakers, or San Antonio. But what one seeks is experience, and one must beat both the Spurs and Lakers, to ever win the West.
Playoffs, dude. Now let's beat Houston.
BLJ
Keywords: Portland Blazers
