Between now and Halloween every team will have traded for Shaquille O'Neal. That's the way the web works. The game of basketball is nowhere near as important as the delicious trade rumors that litter the net. Basketball is a granola bar, but the water-cooler rumblings and guy talk, that's the bucket of triple fudge brownie ice cream that everyone thinks about while they're nibbling the dependable, flavorless bar of grains and health. At some point between the draft and the start of the preseason, Shaq will have been traded for Elton Brand, then maybe Corey Maggette and Andris Biedrins, then one morning after a slow news day the Knicks will swoop in and get "The Big Whatever His New Nickname is Today" for Chris Duhon, a second-rounder and Spike Lee's '88 Jordans with the ketchup stain on the tongue. And, we'll all eat it up. Then we'll ask for seconds. Tis the nature of the off-season. And I love it.
Shaquille O'Neal. One of the greatest centers, if not players, of all time. Four time champion. Master of the monotonous quip. All around nice guy. That Shaquille O'Neal. You know him. Right?
I really think that Shaq is going to be traded this off-season. Most of us do. Despite his resurgence in Phoenix last year Shaq doesn't fit the Suns' plans, and they don't fit his. Assuming Alvin Gentry comes back and passes Terry Porter amazing 50ish game run, the Suns are going to stick with the run and gun style that they tried reimplementing towards the end of last season. While I don't know Shaq, I do know enough 350 pound men to know that they don't really like running. Do you think Shaq, at this stage of his career wants to channel his inner greyhound and run up and down the court at a break-neck pace like he did that first year in Phoenix? Not without a Roundabout he doesn't. It's only a matter of time before he starts freestylin' about how Alvin Gentry can't carry his jock, or how Steve Nash stole his MVP. A pissed Shaq is a cancerous Shaq, and the best way to deal with him is to remove the tumor before it spreads.
That's where Portland fits in. They're one of the few teams in the league that can come up with a deal that works under the salary cap, satisfy any needs that the Suns might have, and give Shaq the chance to walk in and push his new team up a couple rungs on the championship ladder just like he likes to do.
Depending on what the salary cap is set at this summer, Portland should be about $7 million under the cap. Shaq is set to make just over $20 million next year, meaning that the Blazers have to come up with about $10 million in trade chips to make a deal happen (taking into account that under the leagues rules combined salaries have to be within 15% of each other).
What would make it work? And, more importantly, what would make it work well? Just looking at the rosters a trade of Shaq for Joel Przybilla, Travis Outlaw, Sergio Rodriguez and a first rounder makes perfect sense for both teams. Everyone gets what they want and if it doesn't work out, every player could be eligible for free agency following the season.
In all likelihood Travis and Sergio are either on their way out this summer or won't be retained following next season. They are essentially dead weight. That's not a knock on either of them, they just don't seem to fit into the long-term plans of the team. But they would fit in beautifully with the Suns. Travis is the kind of fast, athletic, shooting forward that the fun Suns rode to the finish-line during their nice four year run under Mike D'Antoni. Starting or coming off the bench he would be a perfect fit for them. He'd get his 12-15 shots a night, two or three breakaway dunks off of swiped balls, and he has the warm presence in the locker room to help soothe the souls of a Suns team that spend most of 08-09 bickering and throwing each other under the bus. Sergio on the other hand would be a great heir-apparent to Steve Nash. Guys that excel in a grind-it-out half-court game don't get the nickname "Spanish Chocolate," lightning fast, waterbug hot-doggers do. When you look at Sergio's first three years and compare them to Nash's you start to notice that they're actually quite similar, both in style and stats. When Nash came out of Santa Clara he was about the last guy you would have expected to win a couple of MVP's. He was a below average shooter that played a little out of control, but could also make the occasional "WOW" play. That's where Sergio is now, he just needs a tutor and a few more minutes every night.
The player whose leaving would actually hurt the Blazers a bit would be Przybilla. Not just because he's a fan-favorite, but because Joel is the kind of tough guy that would slip right into Phoenix's starting lineup and play lock-down defense every game without taking many shots away from any of the guys that need them, just like he's done in Portland the last couple years. From the Suns' point it also helps that at this stage of their careers he's quite a bit faster and more athletic than Shaq. They can abandon that "seven seconds or Shaq" mentality that really hurt them after Gentry took over. Joel's hustle would be missed, but going to Phoenix could be the biggest assist of his career.
The Blazers would have to make this trade for two reasons. First, the team learned that having an All-star center helps in the playoffs more than having an All-star guard. And secondly, Greg Oden isn't an All-star center yet. Brandon Roy is one of the top ten players in the league. He played hard during the playoffs. He carried the team to the fourth seed when everyone was just hoping to see the postseason. But, without a strong low post presence, a first-round beating is about all the Blazers can hope for. The Rockets shredded the Blazers with Yao Ming and Luis Scola playing a simple high/low game. Lamarcus Aldridge is the perfect high, but Oden is still a year or two away from being a dominant low. Which takes me to the second part of why Portland absolutely has to make this trade if given the chance, Greg Oden showed some extreme potential this season but he's not quite ready to make the leap yet. Joel taught him quite a bit about how to play NBA defense. He looked markedly better as the season went on, at least in the few games he wasn't in foul trouble. Now Greg needs someone to show him how to score around the basket. He needs to see a fellow big demonstrate how to hold the ball with his back to the basket or when to release that baby-hook or where to go when there are two or three gremlins hanging off his arms. The kind of thing that Shaq's been dealing with for 17 years. Oden is coming along and the best thing that the Blazers can do for him is keep as much pressure off of him. Shaq could relieve quite a bit of that pressure just by coming in and being Shaq. Greg isn't ready to play the savior, but I know Shaq is.
But, we'd better hurry. Summer's coming and we need to make this deal before the ticker on ESPN reports that Shaq got traded to the Knicks for a Big Gulp cup full of subway tokens and Isiah Thomas' old desk.
